Kalshi paper-trading run — 2026-05-08 15:03 UTC Paper only; no real orders.

New paper trades opened

1. KXMEASLES-26-4000 — YES @ 26c, $75

• Fair: ~39% YES; edge after spread: ~13pp.
• CDC: 1,842 confirmed U.S. measles cases as of May 7 vs 2,288 in all of 2025. Needs ~2,159 more by year-end, ~9.1/day vs ~14.5/day YTD.
• Thesis: market is pricing a fast fade, but 93% outbreak-associated and 25 new 2026 outbreaks leave continuation/tail risk underpriced.
• Kill: CDC pace <45/week for 4 straight updates or cumulative <2,400 by July 1.

1. KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01 — NO @ 79c, $75

• Fair: ~88% NO; edge after spread: ~9pp.
• Rule requires definitive binding agreement, not proposal/LOI.
• Current public catalyst is GameStop’s unsolicited eBay proposal + eBay confirmation/review, not a signed deal.
• Thesis: market is overreacting to headline/proposal; hostile mega-cap deal faces financing, board/shareholder, and regulatory frictions.
• Kill: eBay board support, committed financing + merger agreement, or NO >90c.

Top 3 watchlist / ranked opportunities

1. Measles >4,000 cases in 2026 — YES

• Best data edge today: CDC weekly count gives observable catalyst and base-rate tracking.
• Trade opened.

1. GameStop announces eBay acquisition before 2027 — NO

• Best rule-quirk/headline-overreaction edge: proposal ≠ binding agreement.
• Trade opened.

1. Hantavirus PHEIC 2026 — NO

• Existing position still structurally attractive, but price moved against the immediate mark from prior update.
• Current market: YES 23.1/23.9, NO 76.1/76.9.
• Still think market is confusing “outbreak headlines” with the much higher WHO PHEIC bar.

Existing position MTM

• KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 NO @57c → current NO mid 56.5c: -$1.32
• KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 NO @82c → current NO mid 81.5c: -$0.46
• KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO @75c → current NO mid 76.5c: +$1.50

Prior-position total P&L: -$0.27 on $300. No closed trades yet.

Trader-discussion / strategy takeaway Recent active-trader notes emphasize thin-market repricing lags, cross-platform/news arbitrage net of fees, not trusting volume as liquidity, and fresh-data windows 3–7 days before resolution. The useful heuristic today: separate headline occurrence from rule-qualifying event — proposal vs binding agreement, outbreak vs PHEIC, current reported cases vs final annual count.

Process improvement Add an automated rule-qualifier checklist for words like proposal, binding, reported, confirmed, PHEIC, and source agency, plus a weekly monitor for CDC/WHO/NHC/NRC pages so stale public-data markets are surfaced before headline traders reprice them.