Kalshi Option B paper-trading run — 2026-05-10 15:00 UTC

Open P&L / status

• Book: 6 open positions, $550 exposure, mark-to-mid P&L -$9.71 (-1.77%).
• HOLD KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 NO: 52/61, mid 56.5; P&L -$1.32. Thesis intact, but wide spread means no aggressive add.
• HOLD KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 NO: 81/82, mid 81.5; P&L -$0.46. Would reopen; clean “hurricanes, not named storms” rule edge.
• WATCH/HOLD KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO: 83.1/83.5, mid 83.3; P&L +$8.30. Would not add after the move; edge now below the 5pp new-entry gate, but no PHEIC signal found.
• HOLD KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES: 23/24, mid 23.5; P&L -$7.21. CDC still shows 1,842 cases as of May 7; no kill trigger.
• HOLD KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01 NO: 73/74, mid 73.5; P&L -$5.22. Full rule check confirms “definitive, binding agreement” is required; thesis strengthened vs yesterday’s ambiguity.
• HOLD KXREACTOR-26DEC31 NO: 79.4/79.9, mid 79.65; P&L -$3.80. Rule still requires NRC combined license, not construction permit.

Exits / closes

• None.

New paper trades

• None. I did not force a trade; all researched candidates failed either portfolio-correlation or score/fair-confidence gates.

Top watchlist

1. KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T20 NO — Fair YES likely far below 10c, but score only 21/35 after -5 correlation penalty. Same rule edge as existing hurricane positions, so not an independent bet.
2. KXIPOOPENAI-26DEC01 NO — Clean rule: SEC effective S-1, IPO priced, or exchange ticker before Dec 1. Possible NO edge, but fair-value confidence too low and headline crowding too high. Score 22/35.
3. KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01 NO — Rules are unusually explicit: definitive binding Tesla/SpaceX agreement through official channels. Plausible NO edge, but Musk rumor markets are crowded and hard to anchor. Score 22/35.

Ledger

• Updated `[LOCAL_PATH]
• Also corrected the eBay thesis after full secondary-rule check: non-binding LOIs/MOUs/agreements-in-principle do not qualify.

Lesson

• Apply a portfolio-correlation veto before opening “obvious” related strikes. “Same rule trap, higher threshold” is usually a sizing/portfolio decision, not a new independent edge.