Kalshi Option B run — 2026-05-11 15:00 UTC

Open P&L / book status

• Pre-run book: 6 open positions, $550 exposure, mark-to-mid P&L -$12.22 (-2.22%).
• After new paper trade mark-to-mid: 7 positions, $625 exposure, approx P&L -$15.28 (-2.45%) including immediate spread cost.
• HOLD KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 NO: -$1.32. Would reopen only small due wide 52/61 NO spread and hurricane correlation, but rule edge still intact.
• HOLD KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 NO: +$2.29. Would reopen small; same category-1+ hurricane vs named-storm rule edge.
• HOLD KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO: +$2.60. Would reopen at 78.1c with reduced confidence; no WHO PHEIC/Emergency Committee signal found, but Andes-virus cluster keeps fair YES above original base rate.
• HOLD KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES: -$7.21. CDC still shows 1,842 confirmed cases as of May 7; no weekly-pace kill yet.
• HOLD KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01 NO: -$3.32. Would reopen at 76c; current news still describes a non-binding GameStop/eBay proposal, not a definitive binding agreement.
• HOLD KXREACTOR-26DEC31 NO: -$5.25. Would reopen at 78.8c; no evidence of NRC COL issuance, though NRC page fetch failed today.

Exits / closes

• None.

New paper trade

• OPENED: KXSUSPENDGASTAX-26MAY-JUL01 NO at 49c, $75 paper size, qty 153.06.
• Fair probability: ~70% NO.
• Edge: ~+21pp vs 49c NO ask.
• Score: 27/35.
• Thesis: market appears to be overpricing “gas-tax holiday” headline noise. Kalshi requires a U.S. federal gasoline excise tax suspension/reduction to become law before Jul 1 — full House/Senate passage plus presidential signature or veto override. State tax holidays, Canada/foreign fuel-tax cuts, proposals, op-eds, and “administration considers” headlines do not qualify.
• Kill criteria: close/trim if the White House publicly endorses specific qualifying federal legislation with leadership floor schedule, if either chamber passes qualifying text, if rules broaden beyond federal gasoline excise tax, or if NO bid rises above 75c / edge compresses below 3pp.

Top watchlist

1. KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 / KXIPOSPACEX-26JUL01 curve — rules clean, catalyst real, but confidential IPO timing is too opaque. Jun YES scored 23/35; Jul NO 22/35. No trade.
2. KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T20 NO — fair YES still <1%, but this is the same hurricane rule trap already in book. Score 20/35 after correlation penalty. No add.
3. Existing HANTA NO — keep monitoring WHO/PAHO specifically; price still okay, but one more credible cross-border human-transmission signal would cut fair NO materially.

Lesson Add a jurisdiction/source mismatch filter alongside the synonym filter. Today’s edge is not “gas-tax holiday headlines exist”; it is whether the headline maps to U.S. federal gasoline excise tax law rather than state, foreign, proposal, or commentary noise.

Ledger updated: `[LOCAL_PATH]