Kalshi Option B — 2026-05-12 15:00 UTC

Open P&L/status

• Book: 7 open paper positions, $625 exposure, mark-to-mid P&L -$18.38 (-2.94%).
• HOLD KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 NO — mid 52.5c, P&L -$11.84. Would reopen at 53c, but no add due correlated hurricane exposure. Rule still says category-1+ hurricanes, not named storms; NHC says no Atlantic tropical cyclones.
• HOLD KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 NO — mid 84.0c, P&L +$1.83. Thesis intact; spread wide.
• HOLD/WATCH KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO — mid 80.6c, P&L +$5.60. Would reopen only small; WHO scan showed no hantavirus PHEIC/Emergency Committee signal, but tail risk remains.
• HOLD KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES — mid 25.0c, P&L -$2.88. CDC still reports 1,842 confirmed 2026 cases as of May 7; no pace-fade kill yet.
• HOLD KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01 NO — mid 80.5c, P&L +$1.42. Definitive/binding agreement thesis still intact.
• HOLD KXREACTOR-26DEC31 NO — mid 78.15c, P&L -$5.62. Rule still requires NRC combined license, not construction permit.
• HOLD KXSUSPENDGASTAX-26MAY-JUL01 NO — mid 44.5c, P&L -$6.89. Price moved against us, but would reopen at 45c: market still seems to overprice proposals/state/admin headlines vs federal law by Jul 1.

Exits/closes

• None. No kill criteria hit.

New paper trades

• None. No researched candidate cleared both score and +5pp spread-adjusted edge gates cleanly enough.

Top watchlist

1. KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 / KXIPOSPACEX-26JUL01 curve — Watch. “June IPO” headlines are not enough for Jun01, because Jun01 closes before most June timing. Fair Jun01 YES ~12–16% vs 14c ask; Jul01 YES ~65–75% vs 77c ask. No edge.
2. KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01 NO — Watch. Rules are clean and fair YES maybe only 6–10% vs 18/20c, but it is long-dated, crowded Musk-rumor exposure; score 22/35 after correlation penalty.
3. KXUE-CAN27BEL-6.5 — Watch. StatCan April unemployment is 6.9%; market needs first-reported monthly rate below 6.5 before 2027. Fair YES ~32–38% vs 40c ask, edge below gate.

Lesson For date-threshold IPO markets, separate “calendar-month headline” from the exact UTC cutoff. “June IPO” is bullish for before-Jul-1 but not necessarily for before-Jun-1, so curve trades need deadline-specific timing, not generic IPO probability. Ledger updated.