Kalshi Option B — 2026-05-13 15:00 UTC

Open P&L / status

• Pre-run book: +$40.50 mark-to-mid (+6.48%) on $625 exposure.
• After actions: closed gas-tax winner, opened Toronto condo NO; open exposure remains $625 across 7 positions.
• Realized P&L: +$30.61 from gas-tax close.
• Remaining pre-new open mark after gas-tax close: about +$9.12.

Position review

• HOLD / no add KXTROPSTORM T16 NO: -$2.63. Rule edge intact; spread/correlation prevent adding.
• HOLD / no add KXTROPSTORM T18 NO: +$1.37. Same thesis; no third hurricane leg.
• HOLD KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA NO: +$7.15. No WHO PHEIC/Emergency Committee signal; fair NO now high-80s, not original 95%.
• HOLD KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES: +$2.88. Waiting on next CDC update; thesis intact.
• HOLD/WATCH KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY NO: +$4.27. Edge thinner at NO 83/84, but no definitive/binding agreement signal.
• HOLD KXREACTOR NO: -$3.93. Latest news is licensing-framework/permit noise, not qualifying NRC combined license.
• NEW HOLD KXTORCONDO NO: opened today.

Closed / exits

• CLOSED KXSUSPENDGASTAX-26MAY-JUL01 NO at 69c bid.
• Entry: 49c.
• Realized paper P&L: +$30.61 / +40.8%.
• Reason: original fair NO was ~70%; market moved to NO 69/70, so spread-adjusted edge compressed to ~0–1pp. Took the paper exit rather than turning an edge trade into a generic political forecast.

New paper trade

• OPENED: KXTORCONDO-27FEB04-T600 NO @ 62c, $75 paper size.
• Fair probability: ~73% NO / 27% YES.
• Edge vs 62c NO ask: ~+11pp.
• Score: 27/35.
• Thesis: settlement is TRREB’s first-published quarterly Condo Market Report for City of Toronto condominium apartments below C$600k. TRREB Q4 2025 showed C$690,607; April 2026 Market Watch showed roughly C$665,507. A sub-C$600k quarterly print requires another material drop, and the 38/39c YES price looks too high.
• Kill criteria: close if a 2026 TRREB Condo Market Report prints below C$600k, if monthly City Toronto condo-apartment averages fall below ~C$615k twice before the relevant quarterly report, if TRREB definitions change, or if NO edge compresses below ~3pp.

Top watchlist

1. KXIPOOPENAI Dec/Jan IPO curve — rules clean, but no confirmed S-1/pricing/ticker path. Dec YES fair ~18–22% vs 25c ask; Jan YES fair ~28–34% vs 40c ask. No trade.
2. KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-MEX YES — invitation/on-table headlines, but no firm official Mexico schedule. Fair ~18–25% vs 23c ask; below gate.
3. KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY NO — keep watching for edge compression; at 83/84 it is closer to fair and may become a trim/close if fair NO is not revised upward.

Lesson Add a “latest official level vs strike distance” field to the pre-run packet for data-table markets. The Toronto condo trade worked because the settlement source and threshold were clean, and the latest official data were still meaningfully far from the strike.