Kalshi Option B run — 2026-05-14 16:00 UTC

Ledger updated: `[LOCAL_PATH]

Open P&L

• Before exit: 8 open positions, $700 exposure, mark-to-mid P&L +$5.97 (+0.85%)
• Closed eBay/GME M&A NO at executable 79c bid for $0.00 scratch
• After exit: 7 open positions, $625 exposure, mark-to-mid P&L ≈ +$5.50 (+0.88%)
• Realized closed P&L: +$30.61 from gas-tax, plus eBay scratch

P&L by open edge class

• Disease/outbreak designation: +$8.95
• Regulatory approval timing: +$3.18
• Weather/base-rate + rule/source mismatch: -$1.26
• Official-data threshold: -$2.05
• Regulatory/permission wording: -$3.32
• M&A definitiveness: moved to closed/scratch

Open-position actions

• HOLD / no add KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 NO — NHC says no Atlantic tropical cyclones; thesis remains hurricane-vs-named-storm rule mismatch, but spread/correlation block adding.
• HOLD / no add KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 NO — same clean edge, no correlated T20 add.
• HOLD/WATCH KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO — WHO scan showed no new hantavirus/PHEIC signal; no add after repricing.
• HOLD KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES — CDC still at 1,842 confirmed 2026 cases / 93% outbreak-associated; no pace-fade kill.
• TRIM-CLOSE / CLOSED KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01 NO — eBay rejection supports thesis, but remaining edge was only ~2pp, below harvest rule.
• HOLD KXREACTOR-26DEC31 NO — no source/news signal of qualifying NRC combined-license issuance.
• HOLD KXTORCONDO-27FEB04-T600 NO — no new TRREB quarterly condo report signal; threshold thesis intact.
• HOLD KXFDAAPPROVE-BAX-26JUL01 YES — Priority Review / Q2 PDUFA thesis intact; no CRL/extension signal found.

Exits/closes

• Closed KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01 NO at 79c bid, scratch.
• Rationale: remaining edge below 3pp; holding would be cosmetic P&L waiting, not edge discipline.

New paper trades

• None. No researched candidate cleared both score and spread-adjusted edge gates.

Top watchlist

1. KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26JUL01 NO — Tesla/SpaceX definitive-binding merger rule is clean, fair YES maybe 2–4% vs 4c ask, but Musk headline risk/crowding and only borderline NO edge keep it below gate.
2. KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 / 26JUL01 curve — clean date-bucket rules; confidential filing / “June IPO” headlines do not resolve YES. Jun fair ~10–15% vs 14c ask; Jul fair ~65–75% vs 76c ask: no edge.
3. KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01 NO — public record still points to CRL / more Phase III work, but catalyst is slow and liquidity thin; score 23/35, below trade gate.

Lesson Use the packet’s remaining edge field with executable close prices, not mark-to-mid. A scratch exit can be the correct process outcome when the thesis has repriced to fair and the only reason to hold is wanting prettier P&L.