Kalshi Option B — 2026-05-15 15:00 UTC

Open P&L: +$10.00 on $625 exposure (+1.60%). Realized closed P&L remains +$30.61 from prior gas-tax close. No real orders; paper ledger updated.

P&L by edge class

• Disease/outbreak designation: +$8.45
• Weather/base-rate + rule/source mismatch: +$3.15
• Regulatory approval timing: +$0.64
• Official-data threshold: -$0.60
• Regulatory/permission wording: -$1.63

Open-position actions

• HOLD / no add KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 NO: +$1.32. Rule edge intact, but 9c spread + hurricane correlation cap.
• HOLD / no add KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 NO: +$1.83. Still reopenable small; no third hurricane leg.
• HOLD KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO: +$8.45. WHO scan showed no hantavirus PHEIC/Emergency Committee signal; no add after repricing.
• HOLD / watch pace KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES: flat. CDC updated to 1,893 cases as of May 14, only +51 w/w. Needs ~64/week from here to clear 4,000; not a kill yet, but fair value should decay if next updates stay soft.
• HOLD KXREACTOR-26DEC31 NO: -$1.63. No qualifying NRC combined-license signal found.
• HOLD KXTORCONDO-27FEB04-T600 NO: -$0.60. No new TRREB quarterly settlement-source update.
• HOLD KXFDAAPPROVE-BAX-26JUL01 YES: +$0.64. Q2 PDUFA/priority-review thesis intact; no CRL/extension signal.

Exits/closes: none.

New paper trades: none. The best candidates failed either correlation, asymmetry, or edge gates.

Top watchlist

1. KXFDAAPPROVE-BAX-26JUN01 — Watch only. Clean rules, but Jun 1 bucket is mostly exact-date risk; fair YES ~15–20% vs 18c ask and correlated with existing Jul01 BAX.
2. KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26JUN01 / 26JUL01 — Watch only. Definitive/binding Tesla-SpaceX agreement requirement is clean, but executable NO has poor asymmetry at ~100c/96–97c and Musk headline risk.
3. KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 / 26JUL01 — Watch only. Rules require effective S-1 / IPO pricing / ticker assignment; current news remains process/headline speculation. Jun YES looks cheap but scored below gate due source-timing opacity and crowding.

Lesson: Low absolute YES prices are not automatically edges. The Tesla/SpaceX and SpaceX IPO clusters are recurring screener false positives: tight spreads and flashy catalysts, but poor asymmetry, crowding, and weak source-timing confidence.

Self-improvement: appended learning note recommending a screener de-dup/crowding penalty for Musk/SpaceX/Tesla/IPO clusters unless there is an official source event within 7 days or >10pp clean executable edge.