Kalshi Option B — 2026-05-16 15:00 UTC

Open P&L: +$13.05 on $625 before today’s new paper trade (+2.09%). After adding CAG NO: open exposure = $725 across 8 positions. Realized closed P&L remains +$30.61; realized + open mark = +$43.66.

P&L by edge class

• Disease/outbreak designation: +$10.50
• Weather/base-rate + rule/source mismatch: +$4.46
• Regulatory approval timing: +$0.64 before new CAG trade
• Regulatory/permission wording: -$0.97
• Official-data threshold: -$1.58

Open-position actions

• HOLD / no add: KXTROPSTORM T16 NO — wide 10c spread; thesis intact; NHC shows Atlantic disturbances “None.”
• HOLD / no add: KXTROPSTORM T18 NO — clean hurricane-vs-named-storm rule edge, but correlated.
• HOLD: KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO — WHO scan found no hantavirus PHEIC/Emergency Committee signal.
• HOLD / watch pace: KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES — CDC’s latest +51 weekly pace is soft; needs ~64/week from here.
• HOLD: KXREACTOR-26DEC31 NO — no qualifying NRC combined license signal found.
• HOLD, small only: KXTORCONDO-27FEB04-T600 NO — thesis intact, but spread/class drawdown says don’t add.
• HOLD: KXFDAAPPROVE-BAX-26JUL01 YES — Q2 PDUFA/Priority Review thesis intact.

Exits/closes: none.

New paper trade

• OPEN: KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-26JUL01 NO @ 46c, $100 paper, qty 217.39
• Fair: ~80% NO
• Score: 27/35
• Edge: +34pp vs 46c NO ask
• Thesis: Market appears to price CagriSema as if a pre-Jul-1 FDA action date / Priority Review exists, but public source scan found only a Dec 18, 2025 NDA filing and “FDA expected to review in 2026,” with no official Priority Review grant or disclosed June PDUFA. Standard review points closer to late 2026.
• Kill: close if Novo/FDA discloses Priority Review or PDUFA before Jul 1, FDA approves before deadline, credible FDA calendar confirms June action date, or NO bid rises near fair and edge compresses.

Top watchlist

1. KXFDAAPPROVE-BAX-26JUN01 — watch only; correlated with existing BAX Jul01 and edge below gate. Q2 PDUFA supports Jul bucket, not necessarily Jun 1.
2. KXCOMPANYACTIONLAYOFF-B-26JUL01 — watch only; >40% official tech layoff rule is clean-ish, but Block layoff headlines may predate issuance and “primary tech company”/one-time denominator is messy.
3. CAG source monitor — monitor Novo/FDA for acceptance/Priority Review/PDUFA. This is now the key failure mode for the new NO.

Lesson: FDA date-bucket markets need proof of the review clock. “NDA filed” + “FDA review in 2026” is not enough to price a pre-deadline approval unless Priority Review/PDUFA timing is official or strongly corroborated.

Self-improvement: Ledger and self-improvement note updated. Proposed packet improvement: for FDA markets, separately surface detected filed, accepted, Priority Review, and PDUFA snippets so the loop stops treating generic review language as a hard action-date catalyst.