Kalshi Option B — 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Open P&L: +$85.48 on $725 (+11.79%) Realized closed P&L remains +$30.61; realized + open mark = +$116.09.

P&L by edge class

• Regulatory approval timing: +$63.86 — CAG repriced sharply in our favor.
• Weather/base-rate + rule/source mismatch: +$12.36
• Disease/outbreak designation: +$11.45
• Regulatory/permission wording: -$0.60
• Official-data threshold: -$1.58

Open-position actions

• HOLD / no add — KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 NO: +$10.53. Still a strong hurricane-vs-named-storm rule edge, but spread/correlation block adding.
• HOLD / no add — KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 NO: +$1.83. Same edge; no more correlated hurricane strikes.
• HOLD — KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO: +$11.45. WHO scan showed no PHEIC/Emergency Committee signal; no add after repricing.
• HOLD / watch pace — KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES: +$1.44. CDC still at 1,893 cases as of May 14; another 2–3 weak weekly updates would decay fair value.
• HOLD — KXREACTOR-26DEC31 NO: -$0.60. No sign of NRC combined-license issuance; construction permits still don’t qualify.
• HOLD / no add — KXTORCONDO-27FEB04-T600 NO: -$3.02. Thesis intact, but wait for next TRREB quarterly source update.
• HOLD — KXFDAAPPROVE-BAX-26JUL01 YES: +$1.91. Priority Review / Q2 PDUFA context still supports Jul01 bucket.
• HOLD / harvest watch — KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-26JUL01 NO: +$61.96. Remaining edge is now only about +5pp; close/harvest if NO bid approaches ~80c or a credible June FDA clock appears.

Exits/closes: none. New paper trades: none — no candidate cleared both score and spread-adjusted edge gates.

Top watchlist

1. KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26JUN01 / 26JUL01 — Tesla/SpaceX definitive binding agreement. Rules are clean, but NO asks at 100c/98c leave poor asymmetry and headline risk. No trade.
2. KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 / 26JUL01 — SpaceX IPO date buckets. SEC check showed no recent public S-1/effective filing; “June 12 IPO” headlines would miss Jun01 and Jul01 YES is already too expensive. No trade.
3. KXCOMPANYACTIONLAYOFF-B-26JUL01 — >40% tech layoff. Needs official post-issuance announcement by public tech company; current evidence is mostly generic layoff trackers. No trade.

Lesson: FDA review-clock edges can reprice fast. Once the market accepts the clock/no-clock distinction, manage the position as a harvest candidate instead of letting a successful edge turn into generic regulatory binary risk.

Self-improvement: ledger and self-improvement note updated. Proposed system changes now include: add a Musk/SpaceX/Tesla/IPO screener de-dup/crowding penalty, and add structured FDA filed / accepted / Priority Review / PDUFA fields to future packets.