Kalshi Option B — 2026-05-19 15:00 UTC

Total/open P&L

• Pre-action packet: 7 open, $650 exposure, +$121.04 mark-to-mid (+18.62%)
• Actions taken: closed both hurricane/storm NO positions due rule-thesis failure.
• Post-action open book: 5 open, $425 exposure, about +$93.81 open P&L (+22.07%)
• Today’s realized exits: +$22.77
• Lifetime realized paper P&L after today’s exits: about +$96.93
• No real orders; paper ledger updated.

Major issue found: hurricane thesis invalidated Fresh Kalshi rule fetch showed KXTROPSTORM T16/T18 primary rules say “storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 mph or above” — i.e. named/tropical storms — despite titles saying hurricanes. That reverses the original rule/source thesis, which assumed category-1+ hurricanes.

Exits / closes

• CLOSED KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 NO at executable 66c NO bid.
• P&L: +$23.68
• Evidence: VERIFIED KALSHI
• Reason: thesis invalid; rule is 39-mph storms, not category-1+ hurricanes.
• CLOSED KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 NO at executable 81c NO bid.
• P&L: -$0.91
• Evidence: VERIFIED KALSHI
• Reason: same rule reread; >18 named/tropical storms is not the ultra-remote event previously modeled.

Open-position actions

• KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26 NO — HOLD

Current NO 91.5/91.6, P&L +$16.55. WHO DON / Emergency Committee pages showed no hantavirus PHEIC signal. Remaining edge only ~3-4pp; no add.

• KXMEASLES-26-4000 YES — HOLD/WATCH

YES 31/34, P&L +$18.75. Kalshi status showed disputed, but bid/ask exists. CDC still at 1,893 confirmed 2026 cases as of May 14; hold for next CDC update, no add.

• KXREACTOR-26DEC31 NO — HOLD

NO 82.1/82.8, P&L -$0.42. Rule still requires NRC combined license for construction + operations; NRC page timed out, no verified COL issuance signal.

• KXTORCONDO-27FEB04-T600 NO — HOLD / no add

NO 57/62, P&L -$3.02. TRREB monthly page accessible; no new first-published quarterly Condo Market Report signal. Spread/catalyst timing block adding.

• KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-26JUL01 NO — HOLD / harvest watch

NO 74/75, P&L +$61.96. Would still reopen barely at 75c, but edge is compressing. Close if NO bid approaches ~80c or if official pre-Jul-1 FDA clock appears.

P&L by open edge class after exits

• Regulatory approval timing: +$61.96
• Official-data threshold: +$15.73
• Disease/outbreak designation: +$16.55
• Regulatory/permission wording: -$0.42
• Weather/base-rate + rule/source mismatch: closed / removed from open book

New paper trades

• None. No candidate cleared both score and +5pp spread-adjusted edge with clean enough evidence.

Top watchlist

1. KXSAMSUNGSTRIKE-26-MAY22 YES — labor deadline/date-bucket

• YES 40/41. Secondary sources show real strike risk, but not a verified actual work stoppage or primary union/company confirmation. Fair ~40-50%; score 23/35. Watch only.

1. KXMEDIARELEASEADDTRAILER-26-JUN01 NO — media wording/date-bucket

• Rules require public worldwide Official Trailer, not teaser/private CinemaCon/fan trailer. Fair YES ~5-8% vs 11c ask, but NO edge only ~2-5pp; score 24/35. Watch only.

1. KXUE-CAN27BEL-6.5 YES — official-data threshold

• Needs first-reported StatCan unemployment below 6.5 before 2027; exactly 6.5 fails. Latest known level 6.9; StatCan fetch unavailable today. Fair ~32-38% vs 40c ask; below gate.

Lesson Title-vs-rule mismatch cuts both ways. The hurricane position was opened because the title said “hurricanes” and the stored thesis believed rules confirmed that; a fresh API read showed the rules actually said 39-mph storms. For every rule/source-mismatch holding, re-read current rules_primary and quote the exact noun/threshold before classifying as REOPEN_ADD.

Self-improvement: appended a new learning-log entry proposing rules_primary_excerpt in the pre-run packet for every open position/candidate, plus a rule-consistency diff flag when title/thesis keywords conflict with current rule text.